New model to estimate coastal retreat due to sea level rise

13 April 2012 by Webredactie CITG

As part of his recent research carried out at TU Delft and UNESCO-IHE, associate professor Rosh Ranasinghe, in collaboration with colleagues Prof. Marcel Stive (CiTG TU Delft) and Dr. Dave Callaghan (University of Queensland, Australia), has developed an innovative physics based, probabilistic numerical model (PCR model) that represents a major step forward in estimating the critical hazard that is posed by coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

This new model addresses a need that has been felt by engineers and managers for over 50 years. It provides robust estimates of rising-sea-level-driven coastline retreat within a probabilistic framework, as commonly required in the context of contemporary coastal planning/management. Several on-the-ground coastal management projects in Australia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and India that are currently being implemented/planned will take advantage of this new model to facilitate the development of risk informed coastal management/planning strategies.

The development and application of the model is described in detail in a paper that was recently published in the prestigious journal 'Climatic Change’. The paper is available online.

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